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Friday, May 25, 2007

GBP/USD: Lent Support by Disappointing US Existing Home Sales

Cable is eliciting support from April's disappointing US existing home sales. These came in at 5.99 million, versus the 6.13 million forecast, from an upwardly revised 6.15 million in March. GBP/USD resistance levels include 1.9861 (today's Asian session high), 1.9882 (today's early Europe top), 1.9890 (yesterday's peak) and 1.9895 (Wednesday's high).

Buy stops are pegged above 1.9900. Sterling bids are tipped at 1.9830, with some sell stops touted below 1.9825. Wednesday's MPC minutes disclosure that the BoE MPC mulled a 50bp base rate hike earlier this month is helping underpin the pound.

The MPC is expected to hike the base rate by another 25bp to 5.75% this summer. The consensus forecast is that this increase will come in August but a June or July hike cannot be discounted. There is a 30% chance of the UK base rate hitting 6.0% this year, according to a Reuters poll of 62 economists.

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