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Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Swiss Outlook (16th May 2007)

USD/CHF has once again been trapped between a rock and the carry trade. Broader Dollar sentiment helped the price drift to the top of the overnight 1.2140/60 range in Europe but it was the latest EUR/CHF buying that forced the brief push to 1.2167. SNB comments emerged as the cross hit the new all-time highs and as a result of profit-taking in EUR/CHF the pair was quickly depressed back below 1.2160.

Further EUR/CHF volatility is expected to impact the Dollar pair with more offers seen into 1.2180 and 1.2200. The local seller of [EUR/CHF] that kept the pair trading below 1.6530/35 eventually saw their supply absorbed but the new highs at 1.6541 were promptly followed by the Roth comments that saw funds look for the exit.

Looking ahead, US data today kicks off with US Housing Starts at 12:30 GMT followed by a brace of Fed speakers at 13:00 GMT (Plosser and Kroszner). April Industrial Production and capacity data is set for unveiling at 13:15 GMT (+0.3% forecast) with a gap seen before the markets get the Kohn comments at 15:00 GMT. The Dallas speech set for 17:00 GMT concludes the risk-profile for the day.

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