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Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Swiss Outlook (22nd May 2007)

The early European dip saw USD/CHF traders attempt to correct the Dollar strength from yesterday. However, spot failed just shy of its first technical support (the 38.2% Fibo of the rally from 1.2245 to 1.2330) and the pair then bounced. Spot worked back into the 1.23's and offers into 1.2310/15 were soon absorbed as the pair attempts to retest the 1.2332 high from yesterday.

The failure to close above the 200-Day line at 1.2320 added some weight to the downside but should the topside stay in focus and a run towards 1.2350 be looked for then a positive close above this level should be witnessed.

Having failed to sustain the break into the 1.66's yesterday [EUR/CHF] was sold back to 1.6545. Overnight, the cross consolidated the pullback with 1.6555/75 worked. European trading has extended this range slightly, to 1.6550/75, but the price still remains steady near the 1.6565 mark.

Weekly ICSC/UBS Chain Store and Redbook Retail Sales are released early in NorAm trading. However, the attention rests on the 14:00 GMT Richmond May Fed data and the Bernanke and Lacker comments at 22:00 & 23:30 GMT.

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