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Thursday, May 24, 2007

Yen Outlook (23rd May 2007)

Another run to an option barrier level, this time 121.75 plays were removed. Usual knock-out price action with profit taking immediately following the breach of the 121.75 level. U.S investment names were reportedly behind much of the push from levels around 121.65 to 121.78 and the same players were seen off-loading the Dollar all the way down to the early London lows of 121.60-63.

Receding pressure to cut U.S rates and an associated pick up in long term yields has helped support a broad based USD rally this week and with the Yen taking a fresh hit from "carry trade" activity early in the week the path for USD/JPY looks to have been set. The market has the 122.20 2007 high in its sights but for this session we expect to see fairly heavy Japanese exporter sales between 121.80 and 122.00.

Option barriers are touted at 122.00 and 122.25 with large stops tight above. Option related bids touted in the 121.30-40 area, possibly linked to buy backs. European funds have been good buyers of USD/JPY this week and there are rumours of good bids between 121.20 and 121.40.

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