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Friday, May 25, 2007

US TECHS: Commodities Outlook; Gold and Oil

[Gold] hits its worst levels in well over two months yesterday. The sluggish bear trend in place on Trend Intensity got a boost, upticking on the day, but should sidetick today due to the bounce. Today's modest boost in prices is attributed to North Korean missile firings.

Weekly trend models are set to confirm a bearish shift at today's close. With month end drawing closer, the market needs a $20 jump in price in order to retain still-bullish monthly trends and prevent a shift to neutral. For today, resistance is found at $660-61 and support at $649.

[Oil] moved firmly lower yesterday but has been unable to trigger a new Trend Intensity signal. Daily trend models (not Trend Intensity) turn bearish today with a sub-$65.45 close.

However, ability to finish the month above $65.30 retains much more critical bullish monthly trends. Resistance today is at $65.45-60; supports start at $63.30. Technical levels are more stretched out due to the expansion of recent range.

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