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Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Sterling Outlook (22nd May 2007)

Minutes from the May 9/10 BoE MPC meeting will be published at 08:30GMT tomorrow. These will reveal if the decision to hike the UK base rate by 25bp to 5.5% was unanimous. Blanchflower is the most likely dissenter, having voted against the 25bp rate rises delivered in January, last November and last August.

The minutes will also show if anyone wanted to up the UK base rate by 50bp, a move advocated by four members of the "Shadow" MPC. Model fund buying helped inflate GBP/USD to an early Europe intra-day high of 1.9732. The latter level also marks the peak since yesterday's six-week low of 1.9677. Offers are tipped at 1.9740, 1.9750 and 1.9780. 1.9702 (today's Asian session base) is a pre-1.9677 support point.

Touted bear targets below include 1.9660, 1.9640, 1.9590, 1.9565 and 1.9510. Tripped stops below 0.6823 (yesterday's low) have helped depress EUR/GBP to eight-day lows a fraction under 0.6817. An estimated E150mn 0.6815 option strike rolls off on Thursday. An estimated E250mn 0.6850 option strike expires tomorrow. There is another 0.6850 expiry Friday.

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