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Monday, May 14, 2007

Swiss Outlook (14th May 2007)

The new week has marked a return to the carry trade and this has dented the CHF against both the USD and the EUR. Asian action saw the Swiss Franc firm against the Dollar but ease verses the Euro. However, into European trading and USD/CHF finally took note of the cross pressure as EUR/CHF broke back into the 1.65's.

Offers into the 1.2195/2200 area failed to cap but 1.2210 sellers have stalled the rally as the cross attempts to cement the break higher. EUR/CHF hit 1.6520 but bulls have the all-time high at 1.6536 in their sights with option barriers above into the 1.6600 level. Looking ahead, the attention is on the post-European close Fed speakers. At 20:00 GMT Fisher speaks on the service sector while Lockhart is set to speak at 22:30 GMT.

Local dealers look to the Tuesday release of Swiss retail sales data for March (07:15 GMT). The solid job market situation combined with the warm weather should help keep the index on the strong side but this is unlikely to force a Franc U-turn as fresh carry interest keeps the unit on the weak side despite the weekend Jordan comments on higher rates and inflation into H2.

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