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Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Euro Outlook (16th May 2007)

The Euro has been supported by both data and cross buying in Europe. EZ CPI and buying in EUR/CHF, JPY & GBP helped underpin the unit and into early NorAm trading and EUR/USD sits near the 1.3600 level. Offers around 1.3625/30 are eyed on the topside while 1.3685 support is seen key to the trend.

Looking ahead, option dealers note further 1.3600 strikes at the NY cut at 14:00 GMT. Add to the equation the 1.3570, 1.3650 and 1.3750 expiry interest and the pair could sit close to a maturity wherever it trade at 14:00 GMT. Stops in EUR/USD are noted below 1.3580, 70 and 60 but traders look to the 1.3630 in the medium-term should the price retain its bullish bias.

US data today kicks off with US Housing Starts at 12:30 GMT followed by a brace of Fed speakers at 13:00 GMT (Plosser and Kroszner). April Industrial Production and capacity data is set for unveiling at 13:15 GMT (+0.3% forecast) with a gap seen before the markets get another central bank double at 15:00 GMT. This comes in the form of Kohn in the Dollar corner and the ECB"s Weber coming out for the Euro. Dallas comments at 17:00 GMT conclude the risk-profile.

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