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Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Sterling Outlook (15th May 2007)

Cable has fallen by more than half-a-cent to a new one-month low of 1.9747 since the 08:30GMT disclosure of April's as-expected UK inflation figures. Annualized CPI declined to 2.8%, from 3.1% in March. The BoE's target level is 2.0%. Annualized RPI dropped to 4.5%, from 4.8% previously.

Sub-1.9747 bear targets are touted 1.9710, 1.9590, 1.9545 and 1.9410. Resistance levels include 1.9762 (last Friday's low), 1.9782 and 1.9800.

Sterling had climbed from the European open, as the continent absorbed April's better-than-expected 28.9 RICS UK house price balance. Stops above 1.9820 were tripped en route to an intra-day peak of 1.9829.

News-wise: Reuters has agreed to a GBP 8.7bn takeover by Thomson (FT website). M&A flow helped inflate GBP/USD to a high of 2.0000 last Wednesday.

Today's key US event risk is the 12:30GMT disclosure of April inflation numbers. Core CPI is forecast +0.2% m/m, +2.4% y/y. Headline CPI is forecast +0.5% m/m, +2.6% y/y. March TIC data follows at 13:00GMT. Net long-term flows of $73.2bn are forecast, from $58.1bn in February.

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