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Wednesday, May 16, 2007

USD/CHF: Bears Bare Their Claws As Greenback Gouged

Just as the market was getting used to a kinder gentler uptrend in USD/CHF that had the pair open the New York session in the rarified atmosphere of 1.2200 the bears evacuated their caves and came pouring down the slopes to massacre the unsuspecting dollar bulls. It was a double whammy, EUR/CHF & USD/CHF sell off which pummeled the poor old greenback and laid waste any nascent plans for a 1.2200 plus revival tomorrow.

Stops at 1.2210 & 20 were not allowed to be toyed with, and anyone standing in the way was summarily executed. The sell off was swift and sharp, from 1.2200 to 1.2125, some profit taking brought it back to flirt with 1.2150, then another sell off rattled that rally, this time the low was 1.2130, and since the pair has traded in an apprehensive 1.2135/42 range.

EUR/CHF collapsed from challenging its eight year high chalked up on May 1st, failing at 1.6535 and falling to 1.6503 and is holding tentatively around 1.6510. SNB intervention fears and technicians selling the topside failure acted as the catalyst. Now the bears are back in control again, and EUR/USD is back above 1.3600 the street seems more purposeful, amazing what a P&L injection can do for the psyche.

Further downside for USD/CHF to be expected, stops at 1.2080 and 1.1995 on the downside - after all this is all old ground. Topside stops at 1.2210 & 20 seem out of reach given current sentiment.

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