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Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Yen Outlook (9th May 2007)

Tokyo offers in the 120.00 area continue to frustrate the bull market and exporter interest is reportedly thick between 120.00 and 120.30. Weight from the options market has also been a feature as barrier plays, although off the pace at 120.50, continue to take the edge off any Dollar rebound.

On the buy side patchy interest from U.S names has stalled early European weakness at 119.70-75 and there is further talk of reasonable bids from Japanese institutional and retail investors including semi-governmental agencies down to 119.50. Light stops are touted below the 119.50 level, which is also where the Ichimoku Tenken line comes in today. On the option front there are a number of large expiries today, see story timed at 06:59 GMT. The largest of which is an estimated USD 250 mln 120.00 strike.

On the wide we are looking for a 119.60 to 120.10 European morning range but the price band is likely to be far tighter with action focused on a 119.80 pivot. EUR/JPY has also traded tight with 162.15 to 162.50 on the wide. Stops are touted under 162.00 and 161.80.

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