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Friday, May 04, 2007

Euro Outlook (4th May 2007)

Into North American trading and the focus has turned to the 12:30 GMT disclosure of the latest US Employment report. April non-farm employment growth is expected around 100K but many still look for a reading on the weak side. As a result the US unit looks poised to react in either direction to the data.

With the risk profile seen as "asymmetrical" Dollar majors have been happy to maintain recent ranges ahead of the release, EUR/USD has traded a rough 1.3535/75 range intraday with spot pivoting the 1.3550 mark in late European action, a level where option expiries are noted at the NY cut (14:00 GMT). More offers lay into 1.3600 while on the downside 1.3500 is seen as key.

Following this 13:40 sees the ECRI release its monthly inflation gauge index for April and at 13:45 GMT the Fed's Geithner is set to speak. While 1.35/36 remains intact the broader bias should also remain in check but option traders are noting 1.35 & 1.36 strikes today that should fortify these levels. Technically, however, the weekly close will be key with a sub-1.3545 close eyed by one UK Clearer to put the pair on course towards 1.3370.

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