Talk of a large central bank actively selling EUR/USD in today's session has left a pall over the market, as the same player was an integral participant of the Euro's several year long rise. Traders are apprehensive that perhaps they had gotten a little ahead of their reserve accumulation required under their guidelines.
Talk is also that one of the largest US banks is sitting on the bid ahead of stops thought to reside below 1.3550, and giving some credence to the belief that there is a barrier being defended. The IMM have chalked up some E350mn in sales on the session, a little behind their tally from two day ago at the same time, ironically following the release of the "other" ISM; sales on that day were roughly E465mn.
Given the enormous outstandings there is plenty more to go, and another interesting facet of recent data is that yesterday, an "up day" for EUR buying over the same period was a tepid E280mn, tepid in comparison to other up days (Chicago bought E285mn in the first hour last Friday). The market is getting very nervous the closer we get to tomorrow's NFP number.
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