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Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Sterling Outlook (2nd May 2007)

BoE Governor King is slated to address the Society of Business Economists at 17:30GMT. The BoE MPC is expected to hike the UK base rate by 25bp to 5.5% tomorrow week (May 10). A further increase to 5.75% is priced in for H2, with risk to 6.0%. The UK base rate was last at 6.0% in January 2001.

Tripped stops below 1.9939 (today's Asian session base) helped depress GBP/USD to a two-day low of 1.9914 in early European trade. USD buying from US model funds weighed on the rate from an early Asian session high of 1.9991.

Sterling sub-teen buy interest is tipped at 1.9900. Touted bear targets below include 1.9890, 1.9860 and 1.9830 (Apr 16 low). A 1.9850 option strike rolls off at today's 10am Eastern NY cut (14:00GMT/3pm BST).

EUR/GBP 0.6810-15 option strikes roll off at today's NY cut. Bids are noted at 0.6800, with some sell stops pegged below the figure.

April's US ADP employment survey is due at 12:15GMT. Jobs growth forecast: 105k. March US factory orders ensue at 14:00GMT. Forecast: +2.0% m/m. April's US jobs report is out Friday. NFP forecast: 100k.

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