[Gold] tested 50% retracement levels at Wednesday's lows before reversing and heading over $20 higher since, including today's healthy advance. The $664-65 multiple time frame support zone referenced throughout the week never needed a test as prices bottomed out about $5 higher. Of late, gold has been a leader versus silver, the HUI and XAU indexes.
Downtrends from early March peaks come in at $696-98 Jun today, depending on whether tracking COMEX or CBOT futures. Daily trendline resistance at $692.50 has been almost reached, with weekly targets at $695-97.50 right behind. Monthly resistance is at $697-700.50. A break past $700 would lead to sharply upgraded targets. Measured move projections are in excess of $725. Intraday supports are currently $689 Jun, then $684.50-86.50.
In [oil], a falling wedge pattern remains the most bullish technical case to be made for this market. Prices remain just inside parameters set exactly two weeks ago, when a slightly-over-$4 range was set. With prices holding near the low end of range, bulls could use a boost very soon. Risk is to $61.75-62.00 on a break of $62.40-60 daily supports, not yet reached today.
Trend models are quite mixed, with monthlies bullish, weeklies neutral and dailies bearish. Daily momentum is just entering negative territory today after holding above since early February. The lack of bounce is not too reassuring, but a sharp break does not seem to be in the cards.
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