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Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Yen Outlook (30th April 2007)

The Dollar has recovered from Friday's volatile session and has managed to maintain its push towards the 120.00 level. Late Asian position squaring gave the Yen a brief lift but the USD/JPY dip to 119.40, As Europe picked up the pace, provided batter buying levels. Talk in the Asian market of heavy cross sales from US hedge funds with EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY all hit hard.

Much of this action looks to have taken place very early in the overnight session with talk of the speculative players exploiting the thin market conditions. Early European action was Dollar biased with a bounce to 119.68 putting the 120.00 level back under pressure. There is talk of large 119.70-80 offers ahead of 119.90 expires and 120.00 barriers.

Sizeable 119.15-20 bids are also being heard. Holiday volatility and tired carry trade positions will keep the market cautious. The Yen remains vulnerable and traders will be wary as possible corrections against the carry trade hangs over the market. For today we look for a 119.35 to 119.85 range.

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