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Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Euro Outlook (1st May 2007)

Market holidays in China, Hong Kong and Singapore were observed overnight and this has kept volatility muted into the holiday effected European session. With most of Europe out for May Day celebrations the moribund state of play has continued into the North American open.

Buying of the Euro on the crosses saw the unit hit fresh all-time highs against the Yen (163.31) and the Franc (1.6497) but Sterling strength has offset any significant support being garnered. Customer flows saw a German players sell EUR/USD and spot fell back from 1.3661 to 1.3626 to provide the only real move of the morning. Spot has since consolidated with buyers trailing from 1.3645 back to the all-time high at 1.3683.

Option players note barriers into 1.3690 and 1.3700 that will continue to be defended while on the downside a EUR 500Mln 1.36 strike is set at 14:00 GMT. US data today comes in the form of April ISM and March Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT with a Bernanke speech scheduled for 15:00 GMT. Should the Dollar rebound then stops are eyed below 1.3590.

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