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Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Yen Outlook (1st May 2007)

Early action saw a quick spike to the touted 119.60-65 offers and the market turned around. The pullback to 119.55 had some weight behind it and a return to the early European low of 119.45 was on the cards. Further selling interest is touted between 119.70 and 119.90, just ahead of rumoured 120.00 option barriers.

There are also large 119.50 and 120.00 straight expiries with the 119.50 deal rumoured to be for USD 350 mln. Stops are touted above 120.10 and 120.20. On the buy side we are hearing of good 119.35-40 bids. USD/JPY has been caught up in the EUR/JPY rally to new highs of 163.31 as the prospects of higher Euro-zone interest rates impact the market.

Thin European trading conditions has seen much of the business channeled through London and until the US market gets going the Yen is likely to remain on the back foot. US ISM data for April is due at 12:30 GMT with expectations for a rise to 51.5 from 50.9 in March. With the Dollar already looking good vs the Yen it will take a poor number to upset the order.

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