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Friday, May 04, 2007

Sterling Outlook (4th May 2007)

Fresh market-moving influence over cable will be exerted by the 12:30GMT publication of April's US employment report. NFP jobs growth forecast: 100k. Unemployment rate forecast: 4.5%, from 4.4% in March.

GBP/USD erased 1.9850 exotic option barriers in plumbing an early Europe 18-day low of 1.9845. Today's Asian session floor was 1.9851. Sub-1.9845 support points/bear targets include 1.9830 (Apr 16 low), 1.9820, 1.9800 and 1.9770.

Sterling resistance levels are located at 1.9870 (Wednesday's base), 1.9900 and 1.9950 (yesterday's high). 1.9875 and 1.9910 option strikes roll off at today's 10am Eastern NY cut (14:00GMT/3pm BST).

The SNP looks set to overtake Labour, albeit narrowly, as the largest party in the Scottish parliament (FT website). The SNP want a referendum on Scottish independence. Tony Blair is expected to announce next Wednesday or Thursday that he is stepping down as Labour leader, and PM. The BoE MPC is forecast to hike the UK base rate by 25bp to 5.5% next Thursday.

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